Arne O. Holm says The Silk Gloves Are off and Europe Is in the Splits
Facsimile of Outlook 2025, the report from the Danish Intelligence Service.
Comment: The silk gloves are off. It took the Danish Defence Intelligence Service to stand up against the USA and Donald Trump. Their message cannot be misunderstood: the USA is a threat to Europe.
Coincidentally, we published a comment in High North News describing the lack of firmness and substance in the resistance against the American undermining of democracy and security in Europe, just hours before the Danish report.
Military power from the US
The fact that the Danish Defence Intelligence Service is the first to critically analyze the US as an ally must naturally be seen in light of Trump's threats against Greenland and, therefore, Denmark.
When the US, which in this case is threatening to use force against an allied NATO country, the report really couldn't have looked different.
Yet, the intelligence report is perhaps more ruthless and frightening than most expected. Some excerpts from the 64-page document illustrate my point:
- The US is now using its economic and technological strength as a means of power, including toward allies and partners.
- There is uncertainty regarding the US' role as a guarantor of Europe's security.
- The US uses economic force, including threats of high tariffs, to impose its will and no longer excludes the use of military force even against allies.
- The US' increasingly stronger focus on the Pacific Ocean is simultaneously creating uncertainty regarding the country's role as the primary guarantor for security in Europe.
Couldn't have looked any different after the threats against Greenland.
The consequence of these and other analyses is, according to the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, an increasingly dangerous and more aggressive Russia, although it is also emphasized that there is no acute danger of more military attacks on Europe from Russia.
There is, however, no doubt regarding the increased risk of war. Not least because the US has more or less withdrawn all support for Ukraine and Europe.
Could have been worse
It is also worth mentioning that the work on the report was concluded on December 4th, the day before the US presented its National Security Strategy.
The strategy is a harsh attack on Europe, including strong support for the extreme-right political parties, while Russia is no longer described as an enemy of the US.
In sum, the strategy would hardly have softened the language in the Danish intelligence report. It would probably do the exact opposite. It could have been worse.
A document rooted in racist, white supremacist ideology.
A debate in the House of Commons of the British Parliament on the American security guarantee around the same time as the Danish intelligence report was published is illustrative of the current situation.
According to The Guardian, British MPs described the American strategy as a far-right reverberation of the 1930s. And furthermore, that "the US consensus that has led the western world since the Second World War appears shattered."
Or as one MP put it: "A document rooted in racist, white supremacist ideology and it should be called out accordingly."
The sum of the Danish intelligence report and the new American security guarantee paints a picture of Europe in a double bind between two superpowers, Russia and the United States.
It is a situation that has developed gradually since Donald Trump came to power, while Russia seems unstoppable in its attack on Ukraine.
Has acrobatic traits.
Most striking
Finally, European leaders are starting to address the situation.
Whether it will have any consequences for their relationship with the US and Trump remains to be seen.
What is most striking is the verbal splits that both the Danish Intelligence Service and the British Government are demonstrating.
After having documented the US threats to Denmark through 64 pages, the Director of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, Thomas Ahrenkiel, says the following:
"The US is still Denmark's closest ally and most important partner, particularly through NATO and the US commitment to European security."
This is completely in line with the British government's statements:
"The US is still a strong, reliable, and important ally to the UK."
I don't know whether such two-sided political messages have a name, but they sure have an acrobatic trait about them.
PS: The Danish Defence Intelligence Service report has its own chapter on the Arctic. I will come back to that in a later comment. This depiction of misery will have to be enough for now.
