Arctic Circle Assembly 2025: NATO's Military Leader: “The Arctic in 2025 Is at a Crossroads”

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone took the stage for the first time at the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik, Iceland.

The Italian Admiral, who has held the position since January, spoke with humor and openness but made sure to emphasize NATO's mission in the Arctic.

“Our mission in the High North is to prevent others from militarizing, uphold stability, guarantee freedom of navigation, and ensure that the Arctic remains governed by international law, not by the law of the strongest.”

In other words, strength by peace, a phrase that seems to replace the old slogan “deterrence and reassurance”.

For NATO and its partners, the path is clear.

“We must protect our own flame. We must show strong will and alliance, because we can only defend or achieve peace if we are strong.”

At a crossroad

He says that the Arctic in 2025 finds itself at a crossroads.

“It can become a new scramble for Sahara, a zone of rivalry, exploitation and conflict. Or it can be a space where nations prove that cooperation is stronger than confrontation, that security can coexist with sustainability.”

Dragone is new to the Arctic region, and vice versa. But as he has flown over the region several times, he says he is always struck by its “magnificent views”.

“People often say the High North is a silent space, but we should listen harder. The Arctic speaks its own language. Today, this world is filled with the sounds of change, ambition and geopolitical competition. The melting of the ice and advancing technology have opened new shipping lanes that shorten the distance between Asia, Europe, and North America.”

He describes a region with vast reserves of oil, gas, and rare minerals and the risks that follow: “Competition, confrontation, and militarization.”

Echoes in the Arctic

The unrest in the rest of the world resonates in the High North, as threats do not come from a single direction.

What happens in the east echoes in the Arctic and beyond. The war in Ukraine has global implications that affect the Arctic.

He is also clear about the fact that the Arctic is home to the Northern Fleet, nuclear submarines, and a new generation of weapon systems.

“Russia rebuilds bases, deploys advanced weapons, and expands its nuclear and icebreaker fleets, the largest in the world. Right now, Russian soldiers and land forces are busy in Ukraine. But the Navy, the Northern fleet, bombers and all air aviation are still like it was before.”

Beijing, on the other hand, brings capital, technology, and global ambition. Through the Polar Silk Road, China invests in ports, energy projects, and scientific stations, he explains.

Combined, the Russian bear and the Chinese dragon are quite a force.

Reshape the rules

“Together, they aim to reshape the rules of access and influence to their advantage, challenging openness, fairness, and the rule of law,” the Admiral says to the packed hall at Harpa, Reykjavik.

Chinese companies are active in Greenland, in Russia's liquid natural gas terminals, and strategic Arctic infrastructure, he says.

“Together, Russia and China are forging a partnership of convenience in the High North.”

Who will survive?

What is at stake is not only who controls Arctic resources, but whether openness and fair access will survive. To adapt is to survive.

“We are adapting to these evolving challenges. NATO has updated its strategic agenda, and the European Union is reviewing its own”, the Admiral notes, adding that in the Arctic, deterrence is about showing readiness, unity, and resolve.

“We are not militarizing the area. We are just avoiding that from happening.”

Close bonds

But the Arctic is also a region of cooperation that is growing closer under Putin’s war in Europe.

“And it must remain so. Institutions like the Arctic Council continue to play a crucial role in addressing environmental protection, search and rescue, and scientific collaboration. Even in times of geopolitical tension, dialogue must continue. If competition could define the Arctic, only cooperation can balance it,” Dragone says.

He also urges to listen carefully to those who call the Arctic home.

China+Russia love affair

On the China-Russia affair, the Italian officer has thoughts. And he says he'll ”try to be polite.”

“This partnership and link between Russia and China are not going to last forever. Russia sees this partnership like a marriage, while the Chinese look at it like a love affair.”

The breakup is destined to be messy, and the Admiral is certain it will happen sooner or later.

No threat

There are three main sea routes that connect the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans: the Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route) along the Russian coast, where Russia exercises control. There's the Northwest Passage to America and Canada and the mostly unused Transpolar Sea Route, which is the center route directly across the poles, especially during summer.

“The Chinese are more interested in the long-term usage of the center route rather than the route along the Russian coast because they don’t want to depend on Russia,” Dragone predicts.

As of now, NATO does not perceive China as a threat, like they do Russia. Not when it comes to the BRICS states either, the couple's friend group, to continue the relationship terminology.

“The BRICS countries are watching both sides of the story. Some of the member states are close to NATO. They’re not evil, just not totally aligned with the Western way of life,” says NATO CMC.

Peace in Ukraine

When it comes to NATO's definition of victory in Ukraine, the military chair finds it hard to predict after over three years of brutal warfare.

“Russia is making small gains with an enormous amount of losses. Putin will not achieve the strategic goal of having a puppet government. On the other hand, I don't know if Ukraine will be able to get back to the original borders. At this point, victory is no longer in the glossary of any of them.”

He describes a frozen situation.

“From the Ukrainian point of view, they must hold fast and build strength to sit at the table in a stronger position to negotiate.”

A game changer

The Norwegian Chief of Defense, Eirik Kristoffersen, recently said that the two main threats to the Arctic right now are nuclear weapons and climate change.

The NATO military chair says climate change is a game-changer.

“We are trying to be proactive and predict what our future will be. But it's part of a theoretical study that must be confirmed by the real situation.”

End goal

Dragone leaves the crowd with a philosophical angle.

“The Arctic has always tested human endurance. Today, it tests our political wisdom. It asks whether we can protect without possessing, cooperate without competing, and listen before acting. While the world is watching how we navigate this new frontier, let us show that unity, determination, and vision can prevail in the High North. Let cooperation be the sound the world remembers.”

Judging by the applause, the call for tolerance, cooperation, and unity resonated with the Arctic. At least with those in the room.