Deliveries of Russian LNG from Yamal Hold Steady, EU Transshipment Ban Showing Little Effect

The European Union ban on transshipments of supercooled Russian gas has thus far shown little effectiveness. There are no signs that it is fundamentally affecting Russian exports from the Yamal LNG project. 

According to new data by Norway’s Center for High North Logistics, the overall number of departures from Yamal LNG has held steady in recent months.

During the first five months of 2025 the researchers recorded 120 departures, just three less than during the same period in 2024.

Between Jan 1 and May 31 EU countries imported at least 96 deliveries of LNG, comparable to 2024. While deliveries by France and Spain are down, arrivals to the Netherlands and Portugal are up.

The only port recording a substantial decline in deliveries is Belgium’s Zeebrugge, which functioned as the primary transshipment hub for Russian LNG. However, many of these cargoes did not remain in the EU but were transferred to other vessels before onward transport to Asia.

Transfers near Murmansk

With Zeebrugge off limits due to sanctions, Russia has simply shifted the transfer of LNG into its own waters near Murmansk.

The data confirm the relocation of this part of Russia’s operation. While deliveries at Zeebrugge are down by 16, transfers at Kildin near Murmansk are up by 12.

Yamal LNG’s operator Novatek has gained substantial experience over the past 8 years on how to run ship-to-ship transfers at sea reliably and effectively. Between 2018-2020 it ran transfers in Norwegian waters before shifting to Kildin in 2021.

Not slowed down

The transfer at sea requires more careful schedule planning than shore-based transfers at a storage terminal, but thus far the switch to Kildin from Zeebrugge has not substantially slowed down deliveries.

During the first five months of 2024 Novatek managed to ship out 123 cargoes aboard 15 Arc7 LNG carriers, this year it sent out 120 shipments on 14 Arc7 ships – one of the Arc7, Christophe de Margerie, is no longer available due to sanctions. 

China remains the incremental buyer of cargoes not destined for Europe. Previously cargoes bound for China were often transferred in Zeebrugge, now they are reloaded in Kildin.

Trips to Kildin only add minimally to the distance or length of the journeys. Activity at Kildin has doubled from 12 to 24 ship-to-ship transfers.

Novatek has optimized logistics to such a degree that it has managed to conduct two STS transfer simultaneously involving four LNG carriers, two arriving from the east and two arriving from the west at roughly the same time; a testament to optimized logistics given that the two vessels coming from the east are breaking their way through hundreds of nautical miles of sea ice.

Only a ban would affect Novatek

The CHNL data also (again) reveal the Achilles heel of Novatek’s Arctic operation that the EU has thus far shied away from targeting: The proximity of the European market is fundamental to Novatek’s business model.

Voyages from Yamal LNG to European ports take only between 8-10 days year-round; in contrast deliveries to China during winter take 50 days. Speedy trips during winter selling LNG to Europe are a lot more cost effective, than lengthy deliveries to Asia.

During summer months Novatek can send its LNG to China directly via the Arctic, taking around 16-20 days, but between January and June this option does not exist, despite isolated attempts at winter deliveries.

A full EU ban on the import of Russian LNG would challenge Novatek’s business model, especially during the winter season when the Northern Sea Route shortcut to Asia is frozen over.

The data show that the recent transshipment ban has done little to affect Russian LNG exports from Yamal LNG.